March Madness 2026

Monte Carlo Simulation • 50,000 SimulationsData: 2026-04-01

Click a team name to see probabilities if they win it all

#	Seed	Region	R64	R32	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Final	Champion
1	1	West	100.0	99.9	85.8	69.3	53.6	37.5	25.3
2	1	Midwest	100.0	97.9	82.3	63.2	46.1	30.4	17.4
3	1	East	100.0	97.2	78.1	56.5	39.1	21.4	12.7
4	1	South	100.0	98.4	72.5	46.1	25.4	13.1	5.9
5	3	South	100.0	99.8	74.9	42.9	24.3	12.5	5.5
6	2	South	100.0	94.9	71.8	40.4	22.8	11.3	5.0
7	2	Midwest	100.0	95.2	67.8	40.8	18.2	9.0	3.9
8	2	East	100.0	95.1	69.1	41.7	19.7	8.4	3.8
9	2	West	100.0	99.8	72.5	45.6	17.8	8.4	3.8
10	3	East	100.0	91.1	61.0	32.5	14.1	5.6	2.4
11	4	South	100.0	91.5	49.9	22.0	9.5	3.8	1.4
12	3	West	100.0	91.6	57.0	27.7	8.9	3.6	1.4
13	5	East	100.0	85.1	47.9	18.4	9.3	3.4	1.3
14	5	South	100.0	82.4	45.1	20.5	9.1	3.7	1.3
15	6	Midwest	100.0	75.9	43.0	21.8	8.2	3.5	1.2
16	4	Midwest	100.0	86.6	53.0	17.7	8.7	3.6	1.2
17	4	West	100.0	99.7	61.2	16.3	7.9	3.1	1.2
18	3	Midwest	100.0	90.2	48.2	22.8	7.7	3.1	1.0
19	4	East	100.0	99.6	49.3	16.3	7.1	2.2	0.8
20	5	Midwest	100.0	76.3	38.2	11.3	4.9	1.8	0.6
21	5	West	100.0	80.3	35.5	8.2	3.6	1.2	0.4
22	6	East	100.0	66.0	27.7	11.4	3.8	1.0	0.3
23	9	South	100.0	60.7	18.7	7.9	2.9	0.9	0.3
24	6	West	100.0	56.2	24.7	9.5	2.5	0.8	0.3
25	7	East	100.0	61.3	20.6	8.5	2.5	0.7	0.2
26	7	West	100.0	61.7	19.2	8.2	1.9	0.6	0.2
27	8	East	100.0	54.1	12.3	4.9	1.8	0.5	0.2
28	7	Midwest	100.0	56.5	19.2	7.9	2.1	0.6	0.2
29	6	South	100.0	56.2	15.2	5.4	1.8	0.5	0.1
30	7	South	100.0	53.5	15.3	4.9	1.5	0.4	0.1
31	9	Midwest	100.0	50.9	9.0	3.6	1.3	0.4	<0.1
32	9	East	100.0	45.9	9.3	3.5	1.2	0.3	<0.1